What if we took a break from focusing on the 7,600+ congregations that are no longer United Methodist and consider the 100,000 congregations that are anticipated to close in the USA alone?

February 27, 2024
By Rev. Dr. Scott Field

Our current disaffiliation drama might be included in the category of an epiphenomenon: that is, a particular example of a larger reality. With our squabbling over the this-and-that of the UMC General Conference coming up, an analogy might be a competitive game of shuffleboard on the deck of the Titanic. Those of us on both “teams” will be focused on keeping score at the General Conference in some way, to be sure, but we are actually surrounded by truly titanic, that is enormously powerful, cultural, religious, and social dynamics.

Even more, again from my perspective, these genuinely titanic dynamics are related to a much broader disillusionment, with cultural institutions, political parties, government entities, and, yes, religious denominations. A reckoning is upon us.

Jim Davis and Michael Graham, in their recent book The Great Dechurching (Zondervan Reflective, 2023), have done the large-scale research and data collection to confirm what many have experienced at the local church level within the USA:

We are currently in the middle of the largest and fastest religious shift in the history of our country (p. xxii).

Forty million (yes, that is 40,000,000) adults in America today used to “go to church” but no longer do, which accounts for about 16% of the adult population. For the first time in eight decades that the Gallup Organization has tracked religious membership, more adults in the US do not attend church than attend church. This is not a gradual decline…this has taken place in the past 25 years. 

And before we point fingers at the “others” who have caused this rapid disengagement with religious communities, we should note that the research of Davis and Graham found no theological tradition, age group, ethnicity, political affiliation, education level, geographic location, or income bracket escaped the dechurching in America. Though some “groups” leave church faster than others, the researchers learned that every possible category of people is leaving. 

In our sub-cohort of United Methodism, we might tend to focus on the 7,600+ congregations in the US who have disaffiliated. No doubt, a departure of 25% of churches will necessitate other organizational changes in the UMC. But we may miss the forest for the trees if we are not cognizant of the larger cultural landscape. Thom Ranier, well-regarded church researcher, consultant, and strategist, indicated in a recent podcast that the research of his organization indicates something like 100,000 congregations in the US would close in the near future and another large number would slip into terminal decline. That will amount to more than one-third of all churches everywhere in the US. 

Davis and Graham go on to sketch out the implications when religious communities collapse: relationally for the people involved, religiously for the mission of those congregations, and culturally since, they contend, religious congregations are the great mediating communities which have measurable impact on the common good. One study notes that religiously affiliated nonprofit organizations comprise 40 percent of the social safety net in America (Davis and Graham, p. 19). Dechurching will undoubtedly diminish resources that provide relief, care, aid, and community for the poor, disenfranchised, sick, hurting, and otherwise needful. Forty million American adults leaving their worshiping communities will, without doubt, result in a major loss to local communities and the larger culture. 

On the Agenda of the UM General Conference: Dechurching or Rechurching

The pre-General Conference squabbling underway in the UMC-related media of various sorts seems focused on restricting or approving further disaffiliations, the latest edition of perennial re-organization plans (“regionalization”), who’s responsible for “ruining the church”, dealing with the ever-present US-centric bias of most things United Methodist (aka, “What About Africa, the Philippines, and Europe?”), and demanding that those unwelcome instigators (aka, The Wesleyan Covenant Association and Good News) be sent to the Island of Misfit Methodists…or not.

Of course, as you might expect, I have a recommendation as to what the General Conference could do to resolve its longstanding internal conflict and at the same time strategically challenge the “dechurching culture”:

Delegates to the UM General Conference can take a step toward re-churching in a dechurching culture by releasing the congregations that desire to disaffiliate.

Sounds counter-intuitive, right?
But think twice: attempting to hold on to congregations and annual conferences that no longer want to be part of the UMC only prolongs the internal denominational conflict, drains resources and attention, and hobbles any attempt for the UMC to get its footing for the future. One establishment UMC pastor’s YouTube video identifies the WCA and Good News related Methodists as “foxes in the henhouse” intent on the destruction of the UMC. While that is a rhetorical overreach nonpareil, it begs the question: Why would anyone want to lock the door to keep all the foxes in the henhouse when they just want to get out?

So, let those congregations and annual conferences that want to depart do so. A vote by General Conference delegates allowing a fair, transparent, feasible, and uniform path for disaffiliation would mean a multiplication of Methodism. It would be a step in the direction of re-churching amidst the challenge of dechurching in the USA. Think of it as releasing rather than restricting the mission of making disciples of Jesus Christ.

And for those who want the “foxes out of the henhouse”, there would be nothing better than approving legislation to open the door. 

 The Wesleyan Covenant Association advocacy at the upcoming General Conference is focused on overcoming the injustice that has accompanied the application of paragraph 2553 by limiting it to the USA exclusively. What is fair for some should be fair for all. A disaffiliation pathway must be provided to Central Conference United Methodist congregations and annual conferences. This is simple justice that can and should be supported by fair-minded General Conference delegates.

 Additionally, in some areas of the US, United Methodists have been assured that there was no need to hurry a decision about disaffiliation since the General Conference would certainly approve an opportunity for separation in 2024 if it might be needed. General Conference delegates can and should make good on those promises made by bishops and other denominational leaders. 

The stakes are high as the UM General Conference prepares to meet. Whether the disillusionment with religious denominations afflicting the USA will also spread internationally will be answered in part, I think, by whether the General Conference attempts to restrict or votes to allow the release of UM congregations and conferences in Africa, the Philippines, and Europe that choose to leave. 

If you want to hear more from Africa commenting on the UM General Conference, check out the first episode in the new WCA Limited Series Podcast: Short Takes on Hot Topics.

You can also support the WCA’s Fair for Some Fair for All initiative and get more information here.

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