By Joe DiPaolo
June 24, 2022
The United Methodist Church is coming apart. One annual conference in Europe has already departed to unite with the Global Methodist Church, and hundreds of US congregations have already been approved for disaffiliation during this not-yet completed annual conference season.
With General Conference postponed again, and no possible passage of a gracious separation plan before 2024, UM Church bishops and annual conference boards of trustees are creating their own policies. In many cases, it isn’t pretty. Some are putting up as many roadblocks as they can, to make separation and realignment with the Global Methodist Church virtually impossible. In addition to the financial requirements in the UM Church’s Book of Discipline, (see paragraph 2553), some bishops are insisting local churches pay a percentage of the market value of their property – as high as 50 percent. In other cases, local churches asking for meetings to begin negotiations, or obtain pension liability figures, are being stonewalled with delay after delay.
As they look ahead, no wonder many traditionalist pastors and congregations feel the deck is stacked against them, and bishops are holding all the cards. But is their hand as strong as it appears? Consider the problems facing our episcopal leaders as they scan the horizon:
The “Death Tsunami” is rolling ashore. More than a decade ago, we were told of the coming “death tsunami.” Demographic trends within both the larger culture and the UM Church pointed to a sharply increasing rate of membership decline. Figures for 2020 were recently released by the UM Church’s General Commission on Finance and Administration (GCFA), showing a loss of nearly 220,000 members in the U.S. in just one year. The previous year, the decline was more than 180,000. At that rate, the UM Church will lose another million members in the U.S. by the end of 2025, falling to about 5.2 million – and that is just from attrition, since hardly any churches disaffiliated in 2020.
The exodus from the UM Church is accelerating. In the last few years, many United Methodists in the U.S. have kept their heads down, waiting for the Protocol of Reconciliation and Grace through Separation to pass. But now that any consideration of it must wait until 2024, and progressive signers have withdrawn their support, many more traditionalists are seeking to leave. A survey published by the UM News service in 2019 revealed that 44 percent of U.S. United Methodists described themselves as theologically “conservative.” If even half of that number left, with or without their buildings, that would mean nearly another million and a half members, along with their money. Last November, GCFA estimated that U.S. local church net expenditures would drop 20 percent by 2024. Imagine if your congregation was suddenly facing the loss of 20 to 25 percent of your most committed members. What would that mean for the future viability of your church? The bishops are facing at least that, if not more – and that is only in the U.S. In other parts of the world the membership loss is likely to be even higher.
UM Church financial liabilities are growing. I admit to doubts about how real the unfunded pension liability is, because so much depends on the method used to estimate it. But taken at face value, conferences are facing hundreds of millions of dollars in unfunded liabilities to make good on pension promises. Selling properties can only go so far without warm bodies in the pews giving on a long-term basis. There are also looming liabilities over cases of sexual abuse. In December, the UM Church agreed to pay $30 million in the Boy Scouts settlement. And a top-heavy, expensive denominational superstructure will likely continue as is, draining away diminishing resources.
Empty church buildings can be expensive. While there are valuable properties bishops can turn into cash, there are also many others that will be hard to sell and expensive to maintain and insure. Nor is the current seller’s market in real estate going to last forever, especially if we enter another economic downturn. In some cases, it may make sense for a congregation to leave its buildings behind and start meeting at the local high school – especially if it is in deep debt or dire shape. And in divided churches, a vote either to stay in the UM Church or align with the Global Methodist Church will lead to major membership losses – resulting in fewer full-time appointments, lower connectional ministries payments, and more closed churches.
Restructuring the UM Church will be a challenge. Hopes by institutional leaders to restructure and redefine the UM Church will need supermajorities at the 2024 General Conference to change the constitution. That will be a tall order, with African delegations likely to have a large presence, and the recent record of constitutional changes failing to get necessary annual conference approvals afterward. It is even possible that they will have a hard time getting a simple majority to change the paragraphs on sexuality. If that happens, how many committed progressives will decide to leave rather than wait until 2028 or later?
For those of us who feel powerless, and that UM institutional leaders are firmly in control of the situation, it is time for a reality check. Our bishops and leaders are facing an enormously difficult situation – which may explain, at least in part, why some seem so desperate to prevent local churches and assets from leaving. If the experience of the last two months is any indication, however, the breakup of United Methodism is unstoppable.
But it is still not too late to make it as amicable as possible. Right now, it seems we are moving back toward intensified internal conflict, with angry rhetoric heating up, and costly legal battles multiplying. Such a future can only increase the challenges, and further harm the “brand” of United Methodism. It is in the best interest of all – bishops, institutional leaders, theological conservatives and theological progressives – to change course and institute policies which reflect the gracious spirit of the Protocol, rather than enforcing a punitive (and selective) letter of the law. Only then can both bodies, The United Methodist Church and the Global Methodist Church, have the opportunity for fresh, new beginnings.
The Rev. Joseph F. DiPaolo is Lead Pastor at Lancaster First United Methodist Church in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. He is also a member of the Wesleyan Covenant Association’s Global Council.